Quad in the WIOR - US Approves Drone Sale to India
The Quad in the Western Indian Ocean Region
The recent spate of security concerns in the Houthi-led Red Sea attacks has sparked debate about the extent to which Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) in the Indian Ocean Region are secure. As Bloomberg reports, the Red Sea in the Western Indian Ocean Region (WIOR) hosts massive volumes of crude oil, diesel, natural gas, and other petroleum products and bulk commodities from the Middle East and India to Europe. The crisis has led to brief production halts and slowdowns in Europe and risks disrupting energy flows there. The attacks, in essence, have caused an economic crisis and the biggest disruption to global trade since the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to military responses by several state actors, most prominently the United States (US).
Why is it important that the Quad countries — and the Quad, as a strategic grouping — pay policy attention to the WIOR? See this excerpt from the Takshashila Discussion Document – The Quad in the Western Indian Ocean Region to understand why the Quad should invest resources in the WIOR sub-region:
The WIOR space is quickly emerging as a geopolitical hotspot, indicating a possible shift in the balance of power, making China a firmer player in IOR geopolitics. This would lead to Canberra devoting more policy attention to the region. China, for instance, has placed key importance on the WIOR sub-region within the larger IOR strategic theatre, including building its first overseas military and logistics base in Djibouti. At least 90% of Chinese trade is seaborne, with some People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) analysts placing the figure as high as 97%. This includes 70% of China’s energy — oil and LNG— imports transiting through the Strait of Malacca. While China has tried to diversify its energy sources — for instance — by increasing energy trade with Russia, its usage of IOR trade routes for energy will still be substantially significant.
China’s regional military diplomacy has also ramped up.Chinese commercial ports form a network of commercial infrastructural points, which the PLAN may be able to use for various purposes, including military-grade use like attempting regional blockades. In this context, researchers Kardon and Leutert argue that the PLAN’s use of commercial ports for military logistics and intelligence constitutes state power projection by the PRC. It is also likely that other Chinese bases may come up in the WIOR.
China’s strategic interest in the WIOR and the possibility of its militarisation should incentivise Quad countries to aid existing maritime security infrastructures in the WIOR. While such aid does not need to mean deploying military assets, Quad countries can coordinate better to solve challenges in the IOR. These efforts could then be subsumed under the Quad.
Second, while IOR sub-regions reflect strategic and geographic realities, a better understanding of IOR challenges emerges if the region is viewed as a contiguous space. For instance, law-and-order challenges like maritime terrorism may spill over to other sub-regions. Therefore, if the IOR is viewed as an integrated space, the WIOR sub-region — its concerns and challenges — should inform how the Quad thinks about the IOR.
Also, read Jeniffer Parker’s piece to understand Australia’s interest in the WIOR and how it may aid existing efforts to meet regional challenges.
US Approves Drone Deal with India
The United States earlier this week approved the sale of nearly $4 billion in attack drones, Hellfire missiles and laser-guided bombs to India, along with training munitions and navigational and communications equipment.
Bloomberg further reports:
Under the terms of the deal, which has a maximum value of $3.99 billion, the US would sell up to 31 MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones, up to 170 AGM-114R Hellfire missiles and 310 GBU-39B/B Laser Small Diameter Bombs, among other equipment.
ThePrint reports that the Indian Navy will get 15 MQ9B drones in maritime and anti-submarine warfare kits, while the Army and the Indian Air Force (IAF) will get 8 each of its land versions.
In a statement, US Senator Ben Cardin — who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee — said he had ended his "hold" on the agreement once the Biden administration confirmed that the Indian administration was committed to thoroughly investigating the Pannun assassination case.