What’s happening in the Indo-Pacific this week?
What’s happening in the Indo-Pacific this week?
In this week’s edition, I discuss five developments in the Indo-Pacific – the Chagos Islands sovereignty deal, the Malabar naval exercises, the US-India drone deal, the India-Australia 2+2 Secretary dialogue, and finally, the SCO Summit.
An MQ-9 Predator UAV
Credits: United States Air Force
1. The United Kingdom announced an agreement to return sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, including the Diego Garcia base, to Mauritius. This development is the culmination of a decades-long dispute following international rulings that deemed the UK's continued control illegal.
The Chagos Islands, particularly Diego Garcia, the largest in the group, hold strategic value due to their location in the Indian Ocean. These islands host a major joint UK-US military base, crucial for defence operations in the Indo-Pacific. The handover of the islands comes with assurances that the military base will remain operational under a long-term lease, with the UK retaining control of security matters.
The return of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is not just a legal and diplomatic victory for Mauritius but also an effort by the UK to improve relations with countries in the Global South. For India, this agreement is strategically advantageous, as Mauritius shares close historical and cultural ties with India. The Ministry of External Affairs released a press statement welcoming the agreement. It noted,
“India has consistently supported Mauritius’s claim for sovereignty over Chagos, in line with its principled stand on decolonization and support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations, as well as its longstanding and close partnership with Mauritius.”
The joint statement released jointly by the UK and Mauritius government also highlighted India’s role:
“In reaching today’s political agreement, we have enjoyed the full support and assistance of our close partners, the United States of America and the Republic of India.”
The sovereignty shift enhances the region's stability by securing continued Western military presence while simultaneously acknowledging international legal claims. For the Indo-Pacific and the Quad, this agreement preserves the military balance by helping to mitigate the threat of Chinese expansionism and fortifies India and the US's strategic positions in the region.
2. The 28th edition of the Malabar naval exercises took place from October 8 to 18, 2024, off the coast of Visakhapatnam, India. The exercise involves the naval forces of India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, marking an important opportunity for these Quad members to enhance military cooperation and interoperability.
This year's exercise is being conducted in two phases: the Harbor Phase and the Sea Phase. The Harbor Phase focused on planning and training interactions, while the Sea Phase, which commenced on October 14, includes advanced maritime operations such as surface, sub-surface, and aerial warfare drills. The exercises are designed to improve mutual understanding and operational synergy between the participating nations, covering areas like live weapon firings, anti-submarine warfare, and complex tactical manoeuvres.
The Sea Phase is particularly crucial, with destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and submarines from the four navies participating. It also features joint operations by special forces from the participating countries. For the Quad nations, the Malabar exercises are essential for strengthening maritime security and ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific. It also reinforces India's strategic objectives under its "Security and Growth for All in the Region" (SAGAR) initiative.
3. India and the United States recently finalised a significant defence agreement involving the acquisition of 31 MQ-9B Predator drones, valued at approximately $3 billion. These advanced drones, manufactured by General Atomics, will be distributed across India’s military branches: 15 for the Navy and the rest divided between the Air Force and the Army.
The MQ-9B Predators are advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) designed for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), and precision strikes. These drones can carry substantial payloads, making them versatile for both maritime and land-based operations. The Indian Navy will deploy the Sea Guardian variant, enhancing maritime domain awareness and patrolling capabilities, while the Army and Air Force will use the Sky Guardian variant to strengthen border surveillance, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.
This deal is critical for India's defence posture, especially considering rising regional tensions and China's increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. The procurement is part of India's broader strategy to modernise its military and enhance its surveillance capabilities over large maritime and territorial areas.
4. The recent 2+2 Secretary-level consultations between India and Australia, held in New Delhi, focused on reinforcing the strategic partnership between the two nations. This was the fourth round of such talks, involving high-level discussions on political, defence, and regional security issues alongside broader global challenges.
India was represented by Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, while Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty and Foreign Affairs Secretary Jan Adams led the Australian delegation. The talks addressed issues such as technology and industry cooperation, critical minerals, renewable energy and space.
Both nations reaffirmed their commitment to deepening defence and security cooperation, with India and Australia already having a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership since 2020. These consultations also serve as a precursor to further ministerial-level discussions, reinforcing the growing defence and diplomatic ties between the two countries.
5. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit took place this week in Islamabad, Pakistan, on October 15-16, 2024. The summit saw leaders gather from across Eurasia, including notable figures like Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and India's External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, who is making his first visit to Pakistan in nearly a decade.
The summit's agenda covers a wide range of regional issues, including counterterrorism, climate change, economic cooperation, and regional security. Pakistan, in its capacity as the host, seeks to strengthen its influence in regional security discussions, especially with Afghanistan, which poses security challenges after the Taliban takeover.
For India, the 2024 SCO summit is an opportunity to address its security concerns, engage in dialogue with China and Pakistan in a controlled multilateral setting, and expand its economic and trade relations with Central Asian countries. India’s consistent refusal to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while still engaging with China in the SCO demonstrates its ability to voice concerns and differentiate its interests without isolating itself. This gives India a platform to stand out and articulate its position, ensuring that it remains an active player in regional discussions.
What We’re Reading and Listening to
[Research] Read Manoj Kewalramani’s latest discussion document on Counters of New Modus Vivendi with China
[Podcast] Listen to this All Things Policy episode where Aditya Ramanathan and Egyptian scholar Muhammad Alaraby go Beyond the Middle East’s Wars
[Opinion] Read Adya Madhavan’s piece on India’s West Asia Quandary, explaining India’s Israel policy
[Book] Out of new ideas? Get inspired by Peter Watson’s book Ideas: A History from Fire to Freud