An Asi(e)an Century?
In this week’s edition, I discuss the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summits held last week in Vientiane, Lao PDR, and the key takeaways, outcomes, and engagements with its regional partners.
Credits: The ASEAN Secretariat
The idea of the Asian Century traces its roots back to 1924, when geopolitician Karl Haushofer coined the term "Pacific Age", predicting the rise of Japan, China, and India as key global players. In this 1942 Foreign Affairs article, Hans W. Weigert quotes him saying,
"A giant space is expanding before our eyes, with forces pouring into it which, in cool matter-of-factness, await the dawn of the Pacific age, the successor to the aging Atlantic, the over-age Mediterranean and the European era."
However, it is believed that the phrase gained prominence after Deng Xiaoping met Rajiv Gandhi in 1988. Deng acknowledged the growing speculation that the 21st century would belong to Asia and the Pacific. Though he expressed scepticism, this moment popularised the term, later echoed by Asian leaders and the media.
This notion has since evolved, and as we progress into the 21st century, ASEAN is perfectly positioned to amplify this Asian resurgence alongside India and China. With a combined population of over 660 million and an economy that has grown into one of the largest in the world, ASEAN is not just a regional player but a key driver of global trade, diplomacy, and security.
India-ASEAN Summit
The 21st ASEAN-India Summit, held on October 10, 2024, in Vientiane, marked a decade of India’s Act East Policy, with Prime Minister Modi presenting a 10-point plan aimed at enhancing economic, digital, and strategic cooperation. Key initiatives included celebrating 2025 as the ASEAN-India Year of Tourism, expanding scholarships for ASEAN students at Indian universities, and collaborating on cyber and health resilience.
Prime Minister Modi’s 10-point plan aimed at bolstering connectivity and resilience between India and ASEAN. Highlights included:
Initiatives celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Act East Policy, including youth summits, start-up festivals, and a music festival.
Establishing an ASEAN-India Women Scientists Conclave to promote cooperation in science and technology.
Doubling scholarships at Nalanda University for ASEAN students and expanding educational exchanges.
Reviewing the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement by 2025 to unlock greater trade potential.
India and ASEAN adopted a Joint Statement on Advancing Digital Transformation, focusing on cybersecurity and digital public infrastructure. India also hosted a workshop on green hydrogen and invited ASEAN leaders to participate in a 'Plant a Tree for Mother' campaign. The summit saw an emphasis on promoting cultural ties, with ASEAN and India working to expand collaborations through cultural festivals and academic exchanges, such as the ASEAN-India Youth Summit and the ASEAN-India Network of Universities.
East Asia Summit
The 19th East Asia Summit (EAS), was held in Vientiane on October 11, 2024 as a part of the ASEAN summit. The EAS is a key forum for dialogue and cooperation on strategic, political, and economic issues in the Indo-Pacific region. It was established in 2005 and brings together 18 members, including 10 ASEAN countries, along with 8 partners, Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea, and the United States.
Several areas of cooperation were highlighted – peace and security, global health, food security and maritime cooperation. On international issues, the summit expressed serious concerns about North Korea's advancing nuclear program and its missile launches with a call for unified efforts to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula. Discussions also included opposition to coercive activities in both the South and East China Seas. Leaders focused on advancing negotiations for a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, demanding that talks be expedited to prevent further escalation of tensions. Taiwan's stability was also highlighted as vital for regional and international peace.
Crisis in Myanmar
Another significant issue was the political crisis in Myanmar. ASEAN leaders expressed concern over the lack of progress in Myanmar’s peace process, calling for stronger efforts to resolve the internal conflict and restore democratic governance. This remains a critical point of contention within ASEAN, as the situation continues to affect regional stability.
ASEAN, which has been struggling to mediate the situation since the military coup in 2021, once again urged the junta to implement the Five-Point Consensus, which includes ceasing violence, initiating inclusive dialogue, and allowing humanitarian assistance. However, there has been limited progress in the implementation of this consensus. The junta has been reluctant to cooperate fully, particularly in terms of allowing the ASEAN envoy to meet all stakeholders, including ousted civilian leaders.
ASEAN is somewhat divided on how to deal with Myanmar. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have been more vocal in condemning the violence and advocating for more decisive action. On the other hand, countries like Thailand and Vietnam have taken a more cautious stance, emphasising non-interference in the internal affairs of member states.
In response to the junta’s lack of progress on the Five-Point Consensus, ASEAN has excluded Myanmar’s military leaders from high-level meetings, including the ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit. However, Myanmar remains a part of ASEAN, and the bloc continues to engage with the country at various levels. ASEAN consistently emphasises the need for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the situation in Myanmar and to restore democracy in the country. However, the lack of meaningful progress and internal divisions within ASEAN limit its effectiveness.
India’s Interests in Myanmar
For India, instability in Myanmar poses risks to its northeastern border regions, which are vulnerable to insurgent groups that operate across the India-Myanmar border. Ensuring political stability in Myanmar is thus important for India’s internal security. Secondly, Myanmar is crucial for India’s connectivity projects to boost trade with ASEAN. Projects such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project seek to link India’s eastern seaboard with Myanmar’s Sittwe port, improving access to Southeast Asian markets and enhancing trade. However, both projects are significantly delayed. Political instability, security concerns, geographical challenges, and bureaucratic hurdles have prevented their completion, creating a roadblock in their engagement. Myanmar's abundant natural resources, including oil, gas, and timber, also make it a valuable trading partner for both India and ASEAN.
Bilateral Meetings with QUAD members
Though President Biden was missing from the summit, PM Modi briefly met with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, expressing grief for Hurricane Milton victims. He had his first meeting with Japan’s newly appointed Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, which focused on deepening cooperation in infrastructure, connectivity, and defence. PM Modi congratulated Ishiba on his new role and expressed optimism about working together to address regional challenges and strengthen Japan-India ties. He also met with Australian PM Albanese, focusing on enhancing their cooperation under the framework of the Quad.
ASEAN Centrality in QUAD
Both ASEAN and the Quad are committed to promoting a free, open, inclusive, and rules-based Indo-Pacific. ASEAN’s Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) and India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) share overlapping objectives, especially in areas such as maritime security, trade connectivity, and sustainable development. The Quad’s objectives benefit from ASEAN’s endorsement of this vision, ensuring that Southeast Asia is not bypassed in strategic dialogues.
ASEAN also sits at the heart of critical sea lanes like the South China Sea, where a significant amount of global trade passes. Ensuring maritime security and freedom of navigation in these waters is a priority for the Quad, particularly as tensions rise with China. ASEAN’s influence in the region allows it to mediate disputes and offer diplomatic channels that the Quad can leverage for broader regional stability.
Economic and Strategic Partnerships
ASEAN is a key economic partner for Quad members, representing one of the fastest-growing regions in the world. It is one of India’s largest trading partners, with bilateral trade crossing USD 130 billion in recent years. India is ASEAN’s 7th largest trading partner and a major exporter of pharmaceuticals and chemicals while importing palm oil and other agricultural commodities.
India views ASEAN as a critical hub for economic growth, and both parties have worked on improving trade and investment ties through mechanisms like the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA), which is set to be reviewed in 2025. India also seeks to diversify its supply chains and strengthen connectivity, particularly in areas like fintech, digital trade, and infrastructure.
Multilateral Cooperation on Emerging Issues
The Quad’s focus on issues like digital infrastructure, disaster resilience, climate change, and health cooperation complements ASEAN’s regional goals. US’s Cyber Policy Dialogue with ASEAN mirrors Quad’s emphasis on cybersecurity and emerging technologies. Such cooperation helps align ASEAN’s development objectives with Quad’s strategic goals.
Initiatives like the ASEAN-India Network of Universities and the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund could be scaled up to include more academic exchanges, leadership programs, and cultural collaborations. The Quad could also sponsor scholarships and joint research projects in critical areas such as climate science, digital transformation, and public policy.
China: Facilitator or Impeder?
There is no doubt that China plays a prominent role in ASEAN. It is, after all, its largest trading partner, with total trade between ASEAN and China exceeding USD 900 billion in 2022. This substantial economic relationship is built on trade, investment, and infrastructure projects, most notably through the BRI. Hence, ASEAN countries are reluctant to jeopardise their economic ties with China. This economic dependency can limit ASEAN's willingness to join Quad-led initiatives, especially if they are seen as antagonistic to China's interests.
Moreover, China’s influence within ASEAN extends beyond economics. It has deepened its political ties through diplomatic forums and soft power initiatives, including cultural exchanges and educational partnerships. China’s diplomacy has also been effective in shaping the internal dynamics of ASEAN, often diluting collective responses to issues like the South China Sea. Countries like Cambodia and Laos have previously blocked ASEAN from taking stronger stances against China.
Thus, ASEAN’s desire to avoid being caught in a strategic rivalry between China and the Quad often makes it more cautious in working too closely with Quad initiatives. However, the Quad still has the opportunity to build stronger ties with ASEAN by aligning with its priorities of connectivity, economic development, and sustainable growth. Going forward, the Quad can strengthen its relationship with ASEAN by focusing on inclusive infrastructure investments, digital transformation, climate action, and capacity-building in areas like cybersecurity and disaster resilience.
What We’re Reading and Listening to
[Video] Watch Manoj Kewalramani speak at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies on the US’s end goal for China and where India fits in the equation
[Podcast] Listen to this All Things Policy episode where Shambhavi Naik and Aditya Ramanathan discuss whether synthetic biology can produce the next pandemic
[Newsletter] Read the latest edition of Eye on China, Motherland: Mainland or Island?
[Book] Read Parag Khanna’s book, The Future Is Asian: Commerce, Conflict and Culture in the 21st Century