Five key developments in the Indo-Pacific this week
In this week’s edition, I’ll discuss India's bilateral engagements with the U.S., France, and Jamaica, the Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue 2024, and Japan's new leadership under Ishiba Shigeru.
Credits: Dr. S. Jaishankar (@DrSJaishankar) on X
1. Blinken and Jaishankar meet in DC to strengthen India-U.S. Cooperation
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met in Washington, D.C., on October 1, 2024, to discuss deepening cooperation on global and regional challenges. The discussions focused on climate action, regional security in the Indo-Pacific, and promoting global prosperity. Blinken also emphasised India's role in international diplomacy, particularly Prime Minister Modi’s efforts for peace in Ukraine. Reflecting on the recent Quad summit, Blinken said
"We had Prime Minister Modi here in Wilmington, Delaware, for the Quad meeting as well as a bilateral meeting with President Biden. The warmth of that meeting, the ambition in the relationship, is at a level we’ve never seen before."
2. Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue 2024: Focus on Resource-Geopolitics
The Indo-Pacific Regional Dialogue (IPRD) 2024 was held in New Delhi from October 3rd to 5th. This event, organised by the Indian Navy with the National Maritime Foundation as a partner, focused on "Resource-Geopolitics and Security in the Indo-Pacific." The dialogue brought together experts from over 20 countries to discuss how traditional and newly identified marine resources shape contemporary geopolitics.
Key discussions revolved around challenges such as
· Depletion of fish stocks and illegal fishing: Increase in Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing, especially in areas beyond national jurisdiction
· Competition for critical minerals: The geopolitical race for cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements that are essential for renewable energy technologies
· Offshore energy resources: Hydrocarbons, which continue to hold geopolitical importance, and the potential of future resources like ocean-sourced hydrogen
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh gave a Commemorative Address stating, “Our interests do not conflict with those of any other nation.” He also expressed concerns over “efforts to monopolise and weaponise critical resources for strategic purposes,” warning that such actions do not serve the global good.
3. Ajit Doval's Visit to France: Enhancing Defense and Space Cooperation
During his visit to France, Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval held discussions with French Minister of Armed Forces and Veterans Sébastien Lecornu. The two leaders focused on enhancing defence cooperation, including projects related to Rafale jets, Scorpene submarines, and space technology. Doval also met French President Emmanuel Macron, reiterating commitments to the India-France Horizon 2047 roadmap, a strategic framework to bolster long-term collaboration.
This visit follows France's submission of a final offer for the Rafale deal during recent negotiations held in New Delhi. The Indian side is eager to conclude talks and finalise the contract by the end of the fiscal year, as the Indian Navy urgently needs new aircraft and submarines to address its current shortfall. The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has already approved the deal, which is set to significantly strengthen India's naval fleet.
France is an important player in the Indo-Pacific because of its direct territorial stakes. The country has over a million citizens living in French overseas territories such as Réunion, New Caledonia, and French Polynesia. These territories also give France an extensive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 10.7 million km², making France the second largest global maritime power. Both countries also shared views on global security, focusing on the conflict in Ukraine, and reaffirmed the importance of Indo-Pacific security in maintaining global stability.
4. Modi’s Meeting with Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness
In a landmark meeting on October 1, 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness for the first official bilateral visit by a Jamaican leader to India. The meeting focused on strengthening economic cooperation, defence collaboration, and cultural exchanges. Modi emphasised India’s role as a trusted partner in Jamaica’s development, offering expertise in areas such as digital infrastructure, agriculture, and biofuels.
He highlighted the strong cultural ties between the two countries, symbolised by the Four Cs—Culture, Cricket, Commonwealth, and CARICOM. The large Indian-origin community in Jamaica (around 70,000 people) bridges the two nations. The two leaders also discussed global and regional security challenges, such as addressing common threats like organised crime and terrorism. They also reaffirmed their commitment to reforming global institutions like the United Nations Security Council to make them more representative of today's world.
5. Shigeru’s Election: Japan’s Political Leadership Transition
Finally, Japan has a new Prime Minister, with the election of Ishiba Shigeru as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), succeeding Fumio Kishida. Shigeru’s leadership is expected to bring a more assertive approach to Japan’s foreign policy. He has been a vocal advocate for expanding Japan’s defence capabilities and increasing its military footprint outside Japanese borders. He has also been outspoken about his vision for an Asian NATO and has called for Japan to have greater influence over Washington's nuclear strategy, signalling dissatisfaction with what he perceives as an unequal U.S.-Japan alliance.
In the readout of President Biden’s congratulatory call to Ishiba, both leaders agreed to continue deepening the U.S.-Japan global partnership across the full range of security, economic, technology and diplomatic issues through the Quad and trilateral partnerships with the Republic of Korea and the Philippines.
How this shift in Japan's defence posture will impact the Quad remains uncertain. It could potentially dilute Quad’s strategic agenda further. This is especially relevant for India, which has consistently maintained that it does not view itself as part of any military alliance, preferring strategic autonomy and regional cooperation without formal commitments. With the lower house elections scheduled for October 27, 2024, the results will be an important indicator of how well Ishiba’s policies are received, ultimately determining the number of seats the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can retain.
Next week, we will cover the upcoming ASEAN summit in Vientiane, which will be held from October 6th to 11th.
What we’re reading/listening to
[Podcast] Listen to Vanshika Saraf and Dr Pradeep Taneja from the University of Melbourne discuss the expanding agenda of the Quad and India-Australia dynamics
[Opinion] Read Yusuf Unjhawala’s latest piece on why India should steer clear of an Asian Nato
[Book] Given the recent overtures made by the new Japanese PM, read Japan Rearmed: The Politics of Military Power by Sheila A. Smith