Trump 2.0: A view from the Indo-Pacific
It’s been a rollercoaster of a week since Donald Trump’s historic victory in the US presidential election. In this week’s edition, I discuss what a Trump Presidency might mean for Indo-Pacific nations and other recent developments in the region.
Credits: Trump White House Archives
We must remember that Donald Trump, above everything else, is a businessman. And war is not always great for business. He has repeatedly said that he wants to bring a swift end to the war in Ukraine. What’s his action plan? No one knows yet. Not only does he seem to have a personal relationship with Vladimir Putin, but he also thinks the Russian President is someone he can cut a deal with. In September, he met Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Trump Tower and said, “It has to end. At some point, it has to end. He has gone through hell, and his country has gone through hell, like few countries have ever.”
For Trump, what ultimately matters is money. War, for him, is a waste of money. Giving trade concessions to (supposedly) developing countries? Costly. Letting immigrants into the country who are “stealing” jobs? Unnecessary. NATO? A waste of time, money and four letters.
As far as Trump’s approach to the Quad and the Indo-Pacific is concerned, it hinges greatly on the advisors he surrounds himself with. While speculation swirls about potential cabinet picks, much remains uncertain. Should he appoint China-focused hardliners, a stronger emphasis on Asia could emerge, potentially increasing US military presence and boosting regional security. Alternatively, a more restrained US role in the region could prevail, with limited American involvement in general. Trump’s lack of enthusiasm for Taiwan as a strategic priority may also encourage China to double down on its territorial claims.
India
With respect to the Quad countries, India is hopeful owing to a good personal rapport between PM Narendra Modi and Trump. During his presidency, the U.S. and India enjoyed increased security cooperation. In 2016, the U.S. designated India as a Major Defense Partner and in 2018, India was elevated to Strategic Trade Authorization tier 1 status, allowing it to receive license-free access to a range of military and dual-use technologies.
Trump in Ahmedabad, India, 2020
They also finalised two important defence agreements designed to enhance military interoperability and intelligence sharing – the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018 and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation (BECA) in 2020.
Hence, while security ties may deepen, trade relations are likely to face challenges. Trump's America First policy terminated India's preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences in 2019, citing insufficient market access for US goods.
Despite some reservations about specific policies, the Indian public viewed the U.S. under Trump's leadership positively. A 2019 Pew Research Center survey indicated that 56% of Indians had confidence in Trump to handle world affairs, a significant increase from 14% in 2016. Interestingly, however, during Modi’s recent visit to the U.S. for the Quad Summit and the UN Summit of the Future, he refrained from meeting with any presidential candidates.
Japan
Japan finds itself in a precarious moment. With Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru failing to secure a majority in the snap elections and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing control of the lower house for the first time in more than a decade, the only constant about the country at the moment might be the taste of the iconic 7-Eleven egg sandwich.
Ishiba wanted a more ‘equal’ US-Japan alliance with greater control and autonomy over its bases. Well, now Japan can expect some. Trump does not see value in providing security to nations that can’t protect themselves unless, of course, they pay the right price for it. In his last term, Trump demanded South Korea pay up for US troops stationed there. Such moves could initially unsettle Japan and South Korea, disrupting the trilateral cooperation that Biden worked hard to strengthen. Yet, this realignment may also nudge both U.S. allies to reconsider the assumptions of American support and work towards a more self-reliant security posture.
The Japanese business sector has expressed concerns regarding Trump's trade policies. A Reuters survey in August 2024 revealed that 43% of Japanese companies favoured a potential Kamala Harris presidency over a second term for Trump, citing apprehensions about protectionism and policy unpredictability under Trump.
Japanese public opinion on Trump has been generally cautious. A Pew Research Centre survey in 2018 indicated that only 30% of Japanese expressed confidence in Trump to do the right thing, while nearly two-thirds (64%) believed the U.S.-Japan relations remained the same under his administration.
This time, however, the situation could shift. Unlike Trump’s previous tenure, when Shinzo Abe was in power and enjoyed a close relationship with him, the uncertainty surrounding Japan’s next Prime Minister could potentially affect bilateral relations.
Australia
A Lowy Institute poll from September 2024 reveals that 73% of Australians favoured Harris, while 22% supported Trump. This preference aligns with Australia's commitment to democratic values and concerns over Trump's previous actions, such as his refusal to accept the 2020 election results and the subsequent Capitol riot.
A key pillar of the Australia-U.S. defense partnership is the AUKUS agreement. Foreign policy experts anticipate that the nuclear submarine deal will not fall through under a Trump administration, as it enjoys bipartisan support. Over the next four years, ensuring its stability and ongoing support will be a priority for Australian diplomats in Washington.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has been engaging in diplomatic efforts to safeguard Australia's interests, particularly concerning economic policies. Although the U.S. represents just 5% of Australia’s exports, it remains Australia’s fifth-largest export destination. Additionally, the U.S. ranks as its second-largest services export market, contributing to over 10% of Australia’s total services trade. The focus, therefore, is on maintaining strong U.S.-Australia relations and seeking exemptions from potential tariffs that could adversely affect Australia's economy.
Europe
Naturally, there is an air of discontentment across Europe (excluding perhaps Hungary’s Orban and other far-right parties across Germany, the Netherlands, and France that have a different outlook towards Trump). The European Political Community met this week in Budapest on November 7, 2024, bringing together leaders from 47 European countries.
First proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron and launched after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EPC aims to enhance “cooperation on politics, security, energy, infrastructure, investment, and migration.” While it is not formally part of the European Union (EU), it involves both EU and non-EU countries, such as the United Kingdom and Ukraine, and countries in the Western Balkans, providing a platform for broader regional engagement.
Leaders deliberated on NATO's future and the reliability of U.S. security commitments under a Trump administration. The French President emphasised the necessity for Europe to assert its strategic autonomy, stating, “We must not delegate forever our security to America.”
Trump has adopted a more adversarial stance toward the EU, viewing it as an economic competitor rather than a partner. The EU is apprehensive of not only a potential reduction in U.S. support for NATO but also a possibility of a trade war. European officials are considering increasing defence spending and enhancing military capabilities to reduce reliance on U.S. security guarantees.
In other news:
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visited Australia this week to inaugurate India’s fourth consulate in Brisbane. During his address at the University of Queensland, he recalled a moment from 2014 when the Prime Minister asked him to characterise India-Australia relations, and he found himself at a loss for words to describe the partnership.
In the last decade, however, their ties have deepened. In 2020, Australia and India elevated their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and in 2021, the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue was established. In 2022, they also signed the Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA), which aimed at reducing tariffs and laying the foundation for the larger Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) under negotiation. On Quad, the Minister noted,
“Quad has a bigger purpose. You have four democracies, four market economies, and four countries with a strong record of global contribution, all of whom are maritime nations that have found a kind of a common agenda on which to work.”
In the week before the election results, the U.S. deployed B-1B bombers to the Korean Peninsula for joint military exercises with Japan and South Korea amid heightened North Korean military activity in the region. During his previous term, Trump made a historic visit to Pyongyang. It remains to be seen whether he will maintain diplomatic engagement with its leader, Kim Jong Un, and advocate for denuclearisation of the region.
The US levied sanctions on 398 entities and individuals across multiple countries just days before the elections, including 19 Indian firms and two Indian nationals. The targeted companies are accused of supplying Russia with advanced technology and materials that could enhance its military capabilities. While the Indian government has acknowledged the sanctions, it maintains that the companies are not in violation of Indian laws. The Ministry of External Affairs has, however, reiterated India's commitment to non-proliferation and adherence to international obligations, indicating a willingness to address the issues raised by the sanctions.
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